Gilberto Gallopín

Gilberto Gallopín

Gilberto Gallopín is an independent scholar based in Argentina. Originally trained in ecology, he has worked throughout the world on a wide spectrum of issues pertaining to sustainable development: ecological systems analysis, integrated scenarios, global modeling, environmental impact assessment, and development policy. He has previously held senior positions at the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, Stockholm Environment Institute, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, International Institute for Sustainable Development, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). He has also served as a professor at the University of Buenos Aires and Fundación Bariloche, Argentina, where he served as Executive President. He has published numerous articles and books. He holds a PhD in Ecology from Cornell University.

GTI Contributions


Global Scenarios: Explorations in the Scientific Imagination
Interview
Global Scenarios: Explorations in the Scientific Imagination

April 2015

Global futures pioneer Gilberto Gallopín discusses the origins of contemporary global scenario analysis, the ways worldviews can influence our sense of the future, and how the scenario approach offers a powerful way to envision unconventional tomorrows and guide actions today.



Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead
Great Transition: The Promise and Lure of the Times Ahead

April 2002

The planetary phase of history has begun, but the future shape of global society remains profoundly uncertain. Though perhaps improbable, a shift toward a planetary civilization of enriched lives, human solidarity, and environmental sustainability is still possible. This treatise examines the historic roots of this fateful crossroads, analyzes alternative scenarios that can emerge from contemporary forces and contradictions, and points to strategies and choices for advancing a Great Transition. It synthesizes the insights of the Global Scenario Group, convened in 1995 by the Tellus Institute and Stockholm Environment Institute to explore the requirements for a sustainable and desirable future.


The pdf is available in English, Español, and Deutsch.



Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability
Bending the Curve: Toward Global Sustainability

November 1998

This paper analyzes the prospects for sustainability within the confines of Conventional Worlds scenarios. The shift to more sustainable forms of development must at least begin at this level, although we will likely need more fundamental social changes to complete the transition to a sustainable global society. The paper introduces social and environmental targets as well as strategic policies for reaching them. It shows both the great potential for progress and the daunting challenges within a growth-driven development paradigm.



Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice
Branch Points: Global Scenarios and Human Choice

November 1997

This paper introduces scenario methods and a framework for envisioning global futures. It depicts contrasting world development scenarios, all compatible with current patterns and trends, but with sharply different implications for the quest for sustainability in the twenty-first century. Three broad scenario classes are depicted—Conventional Worlds, Barbarization, and Great Transitions—which are characterized by, respectively, essential continuity with current patterns, fundamental but degenerative social change, and fundamental and progressive social transformation.